Bitcoin Bear Market Expected in October 2025 with $50,000 Bottom Target
Bitcoin (BTC) is approaching a critical point, with analysts predicting a potential bear market starting in October 2025. According to the four-year cycle theory, Bitcoin could face a significant downward correction lasting about a year, possibly bottoming near $50,000 by October 2026.
Key Highlights:
- Four-Year Cycle Validity: Bitcoin has historically followed repetitive four-year cycles of bull and bear markets, and the current cycle might end in October 2025.
- Bear Market Trigger: Analysis by Joao Wedson from Alphractal suggests Bitcoin could enter a bearish phase soon, starting this October.
- Price Targets: Short-term support near $100,000 may be tested, with a possible drop toward $50,000 over the course of the bear market in 2026.
- Resistance and Support: Bitcoin is battling a critical resistance trend line after August 2025 corrections; failing to hold $100,000 could accelerate the downturn.
- Institutional Factors: Heavy institutional involvement and ETF influences might affect the reliability of traditional price cycles.
- Bear Market Duration: Prior bear markets lasted around 12 months, indicating the bearish phase could extend throughout 2026.
- Bullish Outlook with Caveats: While some forecast new highs above $140,000, significant volatility and corrections are possible.
- Expert Advice: Investors are advised to consider profit-taking before October 2025 and watch for re-entry opportunities later in 2026.
Market Context and Sentiment
Bitcoin recently experienced a roughly 15% correction from all-time highs above $110,000, highlighting ongoing volatility during the bullish phase. Traders monitor if BTC can break through downward resistance lines or revert into a bear trend. Broader macroeconomic factors like US market conditions also weigh heavily on Bitcoin’s price outlook moving forward.
Bitcoin Price Cycle and Forecast
| Year | Event Description | Price Range Prediction (USD) |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | Halving and Bull Market Start | $9,000 – $30,000 |
| 2021 | All-Time High Bull Peak | $30,000 – $69,000 |
| 2022-2023 | Bear Market Bottoms | $16,000 – $25,000 |
| 2024 | Bull Market Resumption | $30,000 – $110,000 |
| 2025 | Cycle Top and Possible Bear Start | $98,000 – $130,000 |
| 2026 | Projected Bear Market Bottom | ~$50,000 |
This narrative illustrates the cyclical nature of Bitcoin’s price, highlighting the likelihood of a bear market in the near future. Market participants should monitor key support levels closely and prepare for potential volatility and corrections ahead.
Sources: Cointelegraph, TradingView, Alphractal, Investing Haven
